Most probable first-round upsets in the men's 2026 NCAA tournament

Which double-digit seeds have the highest potential to advance to the second round? Here's what ESPN's BPI says.

SMU Mustangs and Miami (OH) RedHawks square off in the First 4

Miami (OH) RedHawks (31-1, 18-1 MAC) vs. SMU Mustangs (20-13, 9-11 ACC)

Colorado State and Saint Joseph's (PA) play in NIT matchup

Saint Joseph's (PA) Hawks (22-11, 14-6 A-10) at Colorado State Rams (21-12, 12-10 MWC)

Utah Valley, George Washington meet in NIT

George Washington Revolutionaries (18-15, 9-11 A-10) at Utah Valley Wolverines (25-8, 15-5 WAC)

Lehigh Mountain Hawks and Prairie View A&M Panthers meet in the First 4

Prairie View A&M Panthers (18-17, 13-9 SWAC) vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks (18-16, 14-7 Patriot League)

Nevada plays Murray State in NIT

Murray State Racers (20-12, 12-9 MVC) at Nevada Wolf Pack (22-12, 14-9 MWC)